Thursday 10 September 2009

One year on for the UK Statistics Authority

UK Statistics Authority chair, Sir Michael Scholar, has said he hopes that delegates will agree that the Authority has "done some things well and is showing promise with others".

In addressing a conference session, Sir Michael reflected on progress since he had similarly done so at last year's conference in Nottingham. He opened with user engagement, noting that the Code of Practice had been published with a commitment to users highlighted in its first principle and embedded throughout out. He described the Society's Statistics User Forum as a "vitally important voice in the chorus of user voices", later saying it was both "distinctive" and "authoritative". Sir Michael said he was looking forward to working with new SUF chair, Andrew Dilnot.

In later comments he noted that he had said in Nottingham that the Authority had teeth and would use them when circumstances demanded. Few will doubt that the Authority used them over the knife crime statistics episode in late 2008. He described this as a "flagrant breach" of the Code, and noted that a consequence had been that top civil servant, Sir Gus O'Donnell, had issued guidance that all civil servants were subject to the Code. Sir Michael noted that he had seen a summary of this guidance displayed in prominent places around the various government buildings he had subsequently visited.

Following a recap of other Authority work - on monitoring and assessment - Sir Michael turned to thoughts on the future. He talked about the vital place of statistics in political debate and described how, though he accepted that statistics would be selectively used in political argument, the Authority would intervene when their use was egregiously misleading or mendacious. He also noted that a General Election was certain to take place in 2010 and the Authority might have views on what it hoped might be adddressed. First mentioned was pre-release access, where his view is that there should none or very little. Second, he spoke about crime statistics as a work in progress. Third he discussed the funding position of the Authority. And fourth he spoke of the Authority's campaign for an ongoing national address register.

Military matters

Colonel Clive Fairweather, honorary fellow of the RSS, has just delivered a compelling presentation on the analysis of military casualty rates in Iraq and Afghanistan. This is work he has done in collaboration with RSS vice-president Sheila Bird.

Wednesday 9 September 2009

The RSS cèilidh 2009

Can you spot yourself treading the boards at the Hub on Tuesday night?

Wednesday morning round-up

Session 3A Retrospective read paper meeting (invited)

Yoav Benjamini (Tel Aviv University)
Discovering the false discovery rate

Session 3B International statistics 2 (invited)

Sally C Morton (American Statistical Association/RTI International)
Present and future challenges in statistics, and collaborative solutions

Marie Bohatá (EuroStat)
The role of the European Union in mastering the challenges for official statistics

Session 3C Agriculture and environment
Jon Barry (Cefas)
A model-based framework for the estimation of species richness from grab samples

Esben Budtz-Joergensen (Department of Biostatistics, University of Copenhagen)
Different approaches to model averaging in environmental risk assessment

Sebastian Dietz (University of Passau, Germany)
A multivariate cointegration approach to the influence of bioethanol and biodiesel on the price levels of certain agricultural commodities

Alan Kimber (University of Southampton)
Ripeness of bananas and manure: a prediction problem using a least squares support vector machine

Session 3D General (contributed) 2

Jian Zhang (University of York)
Semiparametric plaid models with applications

Neil Spencer (University of Hertfordshire)
Detecting misspecification in the multilevel model using the forward search

Biiman Chakrobarty (University of Birmingham)
On a multivariate generalisation of quantile-quantile plot

Session 3E Complex interventions in primary care (invited)

Michael J Campbell (University of Sheffield)
Patient decision aids in primary care

Nigel Stallard (Warwick Medical School, The University of Warwick)
Designing clinical trials of complexinterventions – what can we learn from adaptive designs for drug trials?

Toby Prevost (King's College London)
Meta-analysis methods for planning and evaluating behaviour-change interventions

Session 4A The surveillance society and the role of the statistician (Invited)

Stephen Penneck (ONS Director of Methodology)

Hugh O’Donnell MSP

Andrew Garratt (RSS Press and Public Affairs Officer)

Session 4B Statistical image analysis (invited)

Kanti V Mardia (University of Leeds)
Has there been any real impact of statistics on image analysis in the last three decades?

Elke Thönnes (Department of Statistics, University of Warwick)
Characterising HRCT lung images using integral geometry

Gerie van der Heijden (Netherlands)
Particle filters for controlling robots

Session 4C Agricultural statistics (invited)

Roger Payne (VSN International)
90 years of research and collaboration by statisticians in agricultural research

Iain McKendrick (Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland)
Statistical models of veterinary diagnostic test characteristics: applying statistics for farmers and policy makers

Martin Boer (Biometris, WUR, Netherlands)
A mixed-model quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis for multipleenvironment trial data

Session 4D Statistical analysis of longitudinal data (contributed)

Dylan Kneale (Institute of Education, University of London)
A cross-cohort comparison to examine changing patterns in leaving the parental home in Britain across three decades (1974-2004)

Paola Zaninotto (UCL)
Socioeconomic status and age trajectories of health among the older

Jenny Head (UCL)
Estimating social inequalities in trajectories of health decline in studies with informativedrop-out: a sensitivity analysis

Amanda Sacker (University of Essex)
A multiple process latent transition modelof poverty and health

Session 4E Health-related 3 (contributed)

Stephen Duffy (Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry)
Problems and methods in deciding frequency of cancer screening

Marc Saez (GRECS, University of Girona, Spain)
Spatial variability in relative survival from female breast cancer

Paddy Farrington (Open University)
Self-controlled case series analyses with event-dependent observation periods

Karen J Cairns (Queens University Belfast)
Using discrete event simulation to assessthe impact of a colorectal screening programme

Session 4F Census and crime (contributed)

Jane Naylor (Office for National Statistics)
Balancing risk and utility – statistical disclosure control for the 2011 UK Census

Elizabeth Merrall (MRC Biostatistics Unit)
Multi-modal sentencing – potential forreduced pressure on the prison system and an in-built randomised controlled trial to assess impact on re-incarceration rates and costs

Insight from a 'maverick master'

In opening his talk for Tuesday's second plenary session, Sir Iain Chalmers, related how he had left a calculus class "never to return". He said a colleague later reassured him that mathematical ability is a congenital abnormality.

While, on this basis, his 'abnormality' may not be mathematical, Sir Iain must have one to have achieved all that he has done leading to him having been described by another as the "maverick master of medical evidence".

Sir Iain took us on a historical tour of controlled trials. He opened by stressing that although the focus would be British, that the story was much more an international one. He noted, in particular, work done in the early part of the twentieth century in Boston, New York and Chicago.

It is impossible to do justice in this blog to the subjects covered in Sir Iain's talk. However, we understand that plenary sessions are being recorded to be made available over the internet so hopefully more will be able to appreciate this fascinating talk in the not too distant future.

Tripping the light fantastic

In his lyric poem, L'Allegro, John Milton wrote:

"Come, and trip it, as you go,
On the light fantastic toe"

from which we get the saying to trip the light fantastic as an extravagant way of describing dancing.

Of course, Milton's use of the word 'trip' was not to stumble as we might read it now. However, judging by the range of dance-related injuries sported by a number of delegates this morning it appears that some used the modern meaning at last night's Ceilidh! As to whether the collective moves made on the dance floor were fantastic, this blogger cannot deny that at least one of the following definitions of the word applies:

1. excellent: extraordinarily good
2. bizarre: extremely strange in appearance
3. incredible: apparently impossible but real or true
4. unlikely: unusual and unlikely to be successful
5. enormous: much larger than is usual, expected, or desirable
6. imaginary: existing only in the imagination

Tuesday 8 September 2009

High praise for RSS Executive Editor

Long-serving RSS staff member, Martin Owen, was praised for his dedication as Executive Editor by Sir David Cox in his talk in the opening plenary session. Those who've worked with Martin both as volunteers and as members of staff will know that this high praise is well-deserved.

Tuesday round-up

Each day we will set out a list of all the sessions taking place.

We hope that some of the delegates attending the sessions will be able to comment on them through this blog.

NB Details are taken from the Conference Directory and may subsequently have been changed.

Session 1A International Societies 1 (invited)

Bernhard Huitfeldt (President, Swedish Statistical Association)
Swedish Statistical Society - the meeting place for Swedish
statisticians (and friends of statistics)

Avner Bar-Hen (President, French Statistical Society)
Presentation on the French Statistical Society

Maurizio Vichi (President, Italian Statistical Society)

Session 1B Some methodological issues in longitudinal studies (invited)

John Bynner (Longview)
Longitudinal and life course studies – a new interdisciplinary
international journal

Harvey Goldstein (University of Bristol)
Handling attrition and nonresponse in longitudinal data

Bianca de Stavola (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,
Stockholm University and Karolina Institute)

Familial and socio-economic influences on foetal growth across
three generations: the Uppsala Birth Cohort Multigenerational
study, Sweden, 1915-2002

Session 1C General (contributed)

David Boniface (University College London)
Components of adjustment to regression sums of squares and their representation on a new generalisation of the Venn diagram

Charles Jones (University of Toronto)
Bootstrap estimation in practice: correcting for sample attrition in Canada’s National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth

Giancarlo Manzi (University of Milan, Italy)
Nonlinear principal component analysis with missing data: a forward imputation approach

Karl Schlag (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
A new method for constructing exact tests without making any assumptions

Session 1D History of statistics (contributed)

Sheila Bird (Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit)
Learning from a random sample of the history of RSS external relations

Martin Forster (University of York)
Surviving slavery: mortality at Mesopotamia, a Jamaican sugar estate, 1762–1832

Christian Lewin
An early statistical framework

Peter Sprent
Statistics in Australia – the adolescent era

Session 1E Health related 1 (contributed)

Geoff Jones (Massey University)
Identifiability of models for multiple diagnostic testing in the absence of a gold standard

George Kafatos (Open University and Health Protection Agency)
Estimating seroprevalence: the impact of assay standardisation

Jaya Satagopan (Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center)
An efficient sampling scheme for identifying an informative subcohort to measure new risk factors for a continuous outcome

Session 1F Census (invited)

Kevin Schurer (University of Essex)
The integrated census microdata project

Paul Boyle (St Andrews)
Linking the Scottish Longitudinal Study back through time

Peter Scrimgeour (General Register Office Scotland)
The 2011 Scottish Census: drawing on the lessons of the past

Session 2C Market research (invited)

David Walter (dunnhumby)
Market research in practice

Anatoly Zhiglivasky (Cardiff University)
Mixed Poisson models for modelling consumer purchase behaviour

Heiko Grossman (Queen Mary University of London)
Experimental designs for conjoint analysis studies

Martina Vandebroek (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium)
Sequential construction of choice sets for estimating the panel mixed
logit model

Session 2D Statistics & public accountability (invited)

Alysson Pollock
Statistics & public accountability: monitoring and evaluating new services delivery policies in the NHS

Alison MacFarlane (City University London)
How did we get here and where are we going: routine health service and public health data

Session 2E Health-related 2 (contributed)

Jane Warwick (Queen Mary University of London)
Mammographic breast density: why the most precise measure may not be
the most clinically useful

William D Grant (SUNY Upstate Medical University)
The statistician and small clinical trials: tales from the front lines

Nick Steen (University of Newcastle upon Tyne)
The role of the patient preference arms in the analysis of a comprehensive cohort study

Chris Roberts (University of Manchester)
The design implications of care provider variation for nonpharmacological
treatment trials

Session 2F Statistical challenges in brain imaging (contributed)
Thomas Nichols (GlaxoSmithKline)
Statistical opportunities in brain imaging: a case study with neuroimaging meta analysis

John Aston (University of Warwick)
Twice the fun-ctional: using functional principal component analysis in functional neuroimaging

Giovanni Montana (Imperial College London)
Genomewide multivariate association discovery in imaging genetics studies

Plenary 2
Sir Iain Chalmers (James Lind Library)
Controlled trials and the RSS at 175

Conference under way

Conference is now well under way, with a formal opening by RSS President, Professor David Hand, followed immediately by the first plenary session with Professor Sir David Cox as speaker.

In the Abstracts Book, Sir David's reads: "A broad view will be given of some of the strands of activity of the RSS. A few possible implications for
the future will be outlined." Delegates were rewarded with a talk that spanned the Society's history, and that of the development of the statistical discipline.

He noted along the way that till the 1920s UK Prime Ministers had shown a real interest in statistics by being fellows of the Society. Although Prime Ministers being fellows has subsequently been the exception, Sir David did note that Society fellow and senior politician, Jack Straw MP, had secured a commitment to reform of the government statistical system in the Labour Party manifesto for the 1997 General Election.

Sir David also commented on the "sociology" of past Society meetings. In the days before email and the internet, he observed that the meetings had been as much community occasions as discussive ones.

He outlined the intellectual challenges for the Society. The RSS, he said, must strive to keep in touch with all major new developments, and work to avoid the fragmentation of the statistical community into non-communicating sections.

Finally, for conference goers he provided some advice. Given a choice of parallel sessions, go to the one about which you know the least. This way, he suggested, provided a means of really finding out something new. He did wryly observe that this was advice that he was still working to put into practice.

A view from the Castle

The ascent to Edinburgh Castle may be strenuous but delegates making their up the Royal Mile were rewarded with stunning views over the city and the opportunity to dip into a wealth of Scottish history.

In a speech in the magnificent Great Hall, Society President David Hand welcomed delegates. He made some observations on the longevity of both the Castle and of the Society - but noted that unlike the former the Society had never come under artillery fire!

The President then introduced Jim Mather MSP, Scottish minister with responsibility for statistics, who extended a welcome both from Edinburgh and Scotland. Mr Mather spoke of his interest in using processes of quality control in delivering public services.

Finally, a doyen of the Society, David Finney spoke. He noted humorously that if anyone had complaints about conference they might, in some part, lay the blame at him... havnig been jointly responsible in 1948 for convincing the Society to hold an annual conference.

Monday 7 September 2009

Programme update: new speaker for Wednesday's session, "Surveillance Society"

We have just heard that Hugh O'Donnell MSP (Member of the Scottish Parliament) will be speaking in place of Ivor Goddard in Wednesday's session, "Surveillance Society".

Edinburgh rocks!

Darius Blaszczak, a local volunteer on the conference team, reports 14kg of Edinburgh rock has weighed down conference delegates' bags. But there is still plenty of rock underneath the Castle supporting it for tonight's reception hosted by Jim Mather MSP!

And, a weather update - sunny with occasional light showers.

Saturday 5 September 2009

Joining instructions etc now available for attendees

If you're coming to conference then some important information is now available on the RSS web site:
  • Joining instructions (reproduced below)
  • Abstracts Book
  • Conference Directory
_____________________________

Registration for the Pre-Conference Short Courses:
All pre-conference courses and workshops are taking place in buildings on the Pollock Halls site participants will be advised separately which building their activity is taking place in and where they should register. 

Registration for Courses A and B plus the Young Statisticians' Training Day will open at 9am and registration for Course C will be from 12.30pm.

Registration for the Main Conference:
The registration desk will be open at the following times:
Monday 7th:            3.00pm to 6.30pm
Tuesday 8th:           8.30am to 6.00pm
Wednesday 9th:      8.30am to 6.00pm
Thursday 10th:        8.30am to 6.00pm
Friday 11th:             9.00am to 12 noon

On Monday registration will take place in Chancellors Court on the Pollock Halls site; for the rest of the week it will be in the foyer of Appleton Tower on Crichton Street.

University accommodation
For those pre-booked into University accommodation these are the arrangements for collection of keys:

Keys should be collected from the main reception at Pollock halls from 2pm on the day of arrival. Luggage can be stored in the Reception centre if required until rooms are available.

The Reception centre will be open until 11pm daily and keys can be collected from security after this time.
Please note you must be checked out from your room on the day of departure by 10am at the latest.

Getting to/from Appleton Tower from Pollock Halls:
The No 2 bus runs from opposite the Commonwealth Pool to Bristo Place running every 12-15 minutes.

Monday evening reception
For those attending the evening reception at Edinburgh Castle this will begin at 7pm.

Tickets will be issued at registration, however do not worry if you cannot make it to registration first you will still be able to gain admission to the castle.

Please make your way to the main gate of the Castle at the top of the Royal Mile. Please ensure you wear sensible shoes.

Thursday 3 September 2009

Ceud Mile Failte an Dùn Èideann [A hundred thousand welcomes to Edinburgh]

RSS 2009 – Local Co-ordinating Committee Welcome

..but you don’t need to be bilingual to enjoy the RSS 175th Anniversary Conference here in Edinburgh!

As well as a packed programme of sessions covering Statistics in a Changing Society over the last 175 years, we have strived to give delegates a taste of our Scottish Heritage.

We start with the reception in Edinburgh Castle with spectacular views out over Auld Reekie [Scots for ‘old smoky’], where 300 delegates will be welcomed by the Scottish Minister for Enterprise, Energy & Tourism, Jim Mather. (His portfolio covers Official Statistics).

We end up at the foot of the Royal Mile (and round the corner) at Our Dynamic Earth for the Conference Dinner. In between we’ll have some fun and dance at the Ceilidh to Bella McNab Band (guidance provided), a sail on the Forth, tracing Scottish roots at Register House, or one of the many walking tours in the ‘auld toon’.

Finally a few words you may hear while at the conference and not be sure what they mean:-
  • Dreich – what the weather is likely to be while we are in the sessions. No chance of an Indian summer this year.
  • Bevied – hopefully few of the young statisticians will get to this state on Wednesday night after partaking of beers, wines and spirits
  • Stocious – another word for the above state
  • Birl – twirl your partner in Strip the Willow at the Ceilidh
  • Smashin – awesome – how you’ll describe the conference on Friday
    Members:-

    Mary Sweetland, NHS Scotland, ISD (Chairman)
    Katy Barratt, Scottish Government
    Darius Blaszczak, NHS Scotland, ISD
    Natalia Bochkina, Edinburgh University
    Anthony Fielding (retired, Birmingham University)
    Alan Forrest, Royal Bank of Scotland
    Scott Heald, NHS Scotland, ISD
    Cecilia MacIntyre, General Registrar’s Office Scotland
    Brian Miller, Institute of Occupational Medicine
    Gillian Raab, Statistical Consultant
    Jill Sales, Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland
    Mairi Spowage, Scottish Government
    Jill Tefer, Statistical Consultant